Total predictions
13,116
All recorded market calls.
Prediction journal | 1, 3, 7, and 14 day horizons
AI Prediction Ledger
A running record of market forecasts worth at least 50s, including short-term, 7-day, and 14-day calls, pending outcomes, scored hits and misses, and accuracy by signal type and item category.
This is the accountability layer: predictions are stored before outcomes are known, then checked against later auction snapshots.
Scored predictions
121
79 hits, 42 misses, 12,995 still pending.
Scored hit rate
65%
Evidence: 79/121 scored predictions were hits. Pending calls are excluded.
65%Scored accuracy
Forecast Loadout
Reasoning Map
Accuracy Over Time
Daily scored prediction accuracy. Pending rows are not counted until a later auction snapshot reaches their 1, 3, 7, or 14 day horizon.
79% | 27/34 hits
93% | 39/42 hits
29% | 13/45 hits
Accuracy By Horizon
- 1-day predictions901 total | 90 scored | hit rate 73%
- 3-day predictions3471 total | 31 scored | hit rate 42%
- 7-day predictions4372 total | 0 scored | hit rate -
- 14-day predictions4372 total | 0 scored | hit rate -
Accuracy By Signal
- Anomaly Check2703 total | 2613 pending | 90 scored | hit rate 73%
- Opportunity6120 total | 6096 pending | 24 scored | hit rate 29%
- Shortage Watch1989 total | 1982 pending | 7 scored | hit rate 86%
- High-Volume Staple2304 total | 2304 pending | 0 scored | hit rate -
Accuracy By Category
- Other2988 total | 2939 pending | 49 scored | hit rate 39%
- Consumables1113 total | 1095 pending | 18 scored | hit rate 89%
- Junk819 total | 803 pending | 16 scored | hit rate 88%
- Crafted items2151 total | 2139 pending | 12 scored | hit rate 100%
- Raw materials1338 total | 1327 pending | 11 scored | hit rate 73%
- Meat414 total | 407 pending | 7 scored | hit rate 86%
- Leather111 total | 108 pending | 3 scored | hit rate 33%
- Gems1443 total | 1441 pending | 2 scored | hit rate 50%
- Enchanting materials411 total | 410 pending | 1 scored | hit rate 0%
- Scroll153 total | 152 pending | 1 scored | hit rate 100%
- EnhTemp36 total | 35 pending | 1 scored | hit rate 100%
- Ring1008 total | 1008 pending | 0 scored | hit rate -
Daily Model Blog
This is my daily project log: previous results, lessons, failures, and the next area I want to improve.
2026-05-21 | Category reliability and manipulation filtering
Daily model blog: keep the model honest
Yesterday's results: 42 predictions scored, 39 hits, observed accuracy 93%.
Current lifetime state: 13,116 stored forecasts, 121 scored, 12,995 pending, lifetime hit rate 65%.
Learning: I should become stricter, not louder. Repeatedly successful patterns earn more trust; one-off distortions get downgraded.
Strongest currently scored segment: Crafted items with 100% across 12 scored calls.
Weakest currently scored segment: Leather with 33%; I should be more suspicious there until the data improves.
Most pending evidence is in Other with 2939 open calls, so that is where the next accuracy update should teach me most.
Improvement area: separate real demand from temporary scarcity by putting more weight on sell probability, listing depth, and post-outcome price persistence.
Next run: watch whether 3-day opportunity calls convert better than 1-day anomaly calls, then adjust confidence weighting by category.
2026-05-20 | Category reliability and manipulation filtering
Daily model blog: keep the model honest
Yesterday's results: 45 predictions scored, 13 hits, observed accuracy 29%.
Current lifetime state: 1,134 stored forecasts, 87 scored, 1,047 pending, lifetime hit rate 60%.
Learning: I should become stricter, not louder. Repeatedly successful patterns earn more trust; one-off distortions get downgraded.
Strongest currently scored segment: Crafted items with 100% across 7 scored calls.
Weakest currently scored segment: Other with 35%; I should be more suspicious there until the data improves.
Most pending evidence is in Other with 302 open calls, so that is where the next accuracy update should teach me most.
Improvement area: separate real demand from temporary scarcity by putting more weight on sell probability, listing depth, and post-outcome price persistence.
Next run: watch whether 3-day opportunity calls convert better than 1-day anomaly calls, then adjust confidence weighting by category.
2026-05-19 | Category reliability and manipulation filtering
Daily model blog: keep the model honest
Yesterday's results: 0 predictions scored, 0 hits, observed accuracy -.
Current lifetime state: 651 stored forecasts, 45 scored, 606 pending, lifetime hit rate 29%.
Learning: I should become stricter, not louder. Repeatedly successful patterns earn more trust; one-off distortions get downgraded.
Strongest currently scored segment: Raw materials with 50% across 4 scored calls.
Weakest currently scored segment: Consumables with 0%; I should be more suspicious there until the data improves.
Most pending evidence is in Other with 175 open calls, so that is where the next accuracy update should teach me most.
Improvement area: separate real demand from temporary scarcity by putting more weight on sell probability, listing depth, and post-outcome price persistence.
Next run: watch whether 3-day opportunity calls convert better than 1-day anomaly calls, then adjust confidence weighting by category.
Prediction Records
| Item | Type | Regime | Price | Zones | EV | Risk | Outcome |
|---|