Demo 2: Payout Ledger

This version treats predictions like a real auction-house payout board: bought price is the observed listing price, quantity is capped by what was actually listed, and jackpot means positive expected value after changing sale chance, the 5% auction cut, failed-sale reposts, and 24-hour posting deposits.

Rows are collapsed to one simulated trade per item, market, and buy day. Price-drop predictions are excluded because they train the model; they are not gold-making trades.

How the payout is calculated

Gold result

Jackpot is total expected value, not guaranteed gold. It models 24-hour postings through the prediction horizon.

Expected gold = expected sold quantity x successful-sale profit - expected deposit risk Successful-sale profit = checked sell price x 95% AH cut - observed buy price Expected failed quantity = suggested buy quantity - expected sold quantity

If sale chance is 30%, the ledger expects some items to fail to sell and need reposting. Deposits are charged for the first post and each expected repost.

Inputs used

  • Observed buy price: the price present when the prediction was made.
  • Checked sell price: the later observed market price at the prediction horizon.
  • Sale chance: averaged from the same item, realm, and faction snapshots between the buy time and score time where hourly history exists; otherwise the row falls back to the stored buy/sell checkpoints.
  • Sold/day, price, and supply: read from the same market window where available and shown as market checks in the sold column.
  • 24h deposit: vendor-based 24-hour auction deposit where item vendor value exists; otherwise a conservative fallback estimate is used. Reposts add more deposit risk.
  • Suggested buy quantity: capped by listed supply, sold/day, confidence, manipulation risk, expected ROI, and a 100g test budget.
ItemWhy this call?BoughtSoldGold
Heavy Adamantite RingThunderstrike HordeOther
  • Buyers active: 28.2 sold each day
  • Buy cap: 0 of 0 listed
  • No trade was opened
  • No gold result is scored because nothing was bought
3g 86sNo buy16th May 2026 18:08
3g 70sNo sale assumedSale chance 0%buy/sell checkpoints | -4.2%
 NO TRADE-0c expected deposit risk
Rethban OreThunderstrike HordeOther
  • Buyers active: 40.0 sold each day
  • Buy cap: 0 of 0 listed
  • No trade was opened
  • No gold result is scored because nothing was bought
94s 56cNo buy16th May 2026 18:08
1g 00sNo sale assumedSale chance 0%buy/sell checkpoints | +5.8%
 NO TRADE-0c expected deposit risk
Explosive RocketThunderstrike HordeOther
  • Buyers active: 42.4 sold each day
  • Buy cap: 0 of 0 listed
  • No trade was opened
  • No gold result is scored because nothing was bought
99s 89cNo buy16th May 2026 18:08
99s 89cNo sale assumedSale chance 0%buy/sell checkpoints | +0.0%
 NO TRADE-0c expected deposit risk
Solid Grinding StoneThunderstrike HordeRaw materials
  • Buyers active: 76.0 sold each day
  • Buy cap: 0 of 0 listed
  • No trade was opened
  • No gold result is scored because nothing was bought
62s 23cNo buy16th May 2026 18:08
73s 28cNo sale assumedSale chance 0%buy/sell checkpoints | +17.8%
 NO TRADE-0c expected deposit risk

Pending Reads