Nightslayer Alliance

Median 3-day move

Observed short-term repricing across the latest item feature set.

Median price volatility

Higher values mean less certainty and more need to check repeat snapshots.

Confidence posture

Conclusions distinguish observed data, inference, speculation, and scored prior outcomes.

Yesterday

Not enough data for this section yet.

Last 7 Days

Not enough data for this section yet.

Hidden Opportunities

• Gezzarak's ClawsStrong Buy | profit 11g 79s | confidence High 77%
• Bracing Earthstorm DiamondStrong Buy | profit 10g 83s | confidence Low 32%
• Azurite RingStrong Buy | profit 10g 33s | confidence Low 37%
• Ethereum Stasis Chamber KeyStrong Buy | profit 7g 55s | confidence Low 34%
• Akkarai's TalonsStrong Buy | profit 7g 22s | confidence Medium 69%
• Frozen RuneStrong Buy | profit 6g 71s | confidence Low 47%
• Karrog's SpineStrong Buy | profit 6g 53s | confidence High 77%
• ShadowclothStrong Buy | profit 6g 53s | confidence Low 31%

Supply Shifts

Not enough data for this section yet.

Unusual Activity

• Rough Weightstoneprice 800g 0s | move +1162703.8% | sold/day 12.0
• Scroll of Stamina IIprice 505g 99s | move +117986.3% | sold/day 24.2
• Razor Arrowprice 88s 10c | move +62828.6% | sold/day 1,178.8
• Sharp Arrowprice 88s 8c | move +58620.0% | sold/day 512.9
• Accurate Slugsprice 88s 13c | move +51741.2% | sold/day 169.4
• Nightcrawlersprice 77s 28c | move +14481.1% | sold/day 37.1
• Raw Rockscale Codprice 2s 84c | move +14100.0% | sold/day 146.8
• Solid Shotprice 88s 27c | move +11828.4% | sold/day 66.9

Shortage Watch

• Crafted Heavy Shotsupply 0 | sold/day 864.0 | change -
• Feathered Arrowsupply 0 | sold/day 164.0 | change -
• Bloodthistlesupply 0 | sold/day 146.7 | change -
• Lynx Meatsupply 0 | sold/day 137.3 | change -
• Grime-Encrusted Objectsupply 0 | sold/day 74.6 | change -
• Mithril Head Troutsupply 0 | sold/day 40.0 | change -
• Exploding Shotsupply 0 | sold/day 27.3 | change -
• Enriched Manna Biscuitsupply 0 | sold/day 19.2 | change -

What The AI Learned

• This analysis stores its market calls and checks them against later snapshots, so future confidence can be adjusted by observed signal reliability. Reports are published transparently so users can evaluate the reasoning and outcomes over time.
• The feedback loop has evaluated 16 previous market calls for this realm/faction; observed hit rate is 81%.
• Large short-term movers are being treated as investigation targets first, not automatic buys, because Phase 2 launch activity can include both real demand and stockpiler unloading.
• Opportunity scoring is most reliable when high profit is supported by sold/day and enough auctions to avoid one-listing bait.
• High-value, high-volume staple markets are tracked even when they are not discounted, because steady sold/day can matter as much as a one-off bargain.
• The model lowers confidence where stack-level behavior, cancellations, relists, or unknown external events could explain the observed move.

Prediction Feedback

16 previous calls scored. Overall observed hit rate: 81%.

• Anomaly16 scored | hit rate 81%
• Consumables7 category calls scored | hit rate 100%
• Crafted items4 category calls scored | hit rate 100%
• Leather2 category calls scored | hit rate 0%
• Meat2 category calls scored | hit rate 50%
• Other1 category calls scored | hit rate 100%

Known Limits

• Data is regional-demand informed and auction-house snapshot based; it is not perfect individual realm/player truth.
• The system cannot identify individual sellers or buyers.
• The system cannot see stack sizes, cancellations, relisting behaviour, expired auctions, or player-submitted reports.
• External in-game event visibility is incomplete, so some market movement may be caused by unknown factors.
• Confidence is reduced when a market has thin history, low sold/day, low auction count, or extreme one-listing price moves.
• Very low-price items below 10c are ignored unless sold/day is high enough to show real bulk demand.